Post by Cardinals GM (Wood) on Feb 21, 2014 14:36:39 GMT -6
Catchers
by BP Fantasy Staff
On Monday, the BP Fantasy staff brought you a collection of catchers you’d be wise to target in your drafts this season. Because every internet column has an equal and opposite column, we shall now bring you the names of many backstops you should avoid.
Travis d’Arnaud, Mets
Dissing d’Arnaud, while certainly a catchy name for a cover band, isn’t something I jumped at. In long-term leagues, by all means, go crazy. But for the upcoming season, I’m not going out of my way for any Met not named David Wright (pitchers not included). The 24-year-old will be buried at the bottom of a New York lineup that finished 29th in terms of wOBA (.297) in 2013, and while the team might be marginally better with Curtis Granderson onboard, I’m not seeing an offensive revival of great significance. We have only 31 games of major-league data to go by, and that small sample size produced a lowly line of .202/.286/.263 and one home run. A full-time job doesn’t guarantee anything—even for a former no. 1 organizational prospect—and I’m afraid the name might outweigh d’Arnaud’s actual value on draft day. —Alex Kantecki
Devin Mesoraco, Reds
There's no question that Mesoraco has been a bust so far in his major-league career, but it's hard to hold that against him as he's gotten inconsistent playing time from former manager Dusty Baker and catchers tend to develop slowly at the plate. However, with the depth of mid-range options at catcher this year, I'd prefer to spend my draft-day dollars (especially in a two-catcher league) on one of the similarly priced options with more safety. In a one-catcher league, it's much less of a risk as you've likely waited on catcher if you're starting Mesoraco and there are other names in our rankings available on the wire. If faced with the decision of Mesoraco versus Alex Avila, Welington Castillo, or A.J. Pierzynski, I might as well rename my team "No Devins.” —Bret Sayre
Salvador Perez, Royals
Perez is another guy who doesn’t walk much, but rarely misses, which allows his impressive average to play up even more, given how often he makes contact. He also has the benefit of the Royals catching him more than other teams play their own catchers. That said, with Perez, it all comes down to whether the power comes. At only 23 years old, it’s too early to say anything definitively, but it seems like people are holding on to the 11 home runs in 305 plate-appearances in 2012 and overlooking the 13 he had in 526 PA last year. He’s very clearly a useful player, and might produce top-10 value even without a 20-home-run season. The issue is where you have to reach for him to get him. He’s being valued as a top-seven type of catcher, and the honest truth is that you should be able to get a guy like Jason Castro (less average, more power, more on-base) rounds later. —Craig Goldstein
Wilin Rosario, Rockies
Rosario followed up an impressive 2012 campaign with a strong 2013 as he slashed .292/.315/.486 with 21 HR and good RBI/R numbers. However, Rosario sported a 3.2 BB percentage in 2013 and he saw a big jump in BABIP from .289 in 2012 to .344 in 2013. Given the body type and LD% (22.9 percent) I doubt Rosario will be sporting a .290-plus average in 2014. Rosario will go high because there’s a genuine lack of offensive talent at the position. Owners will see a .292/21 guy available at the C position and pounce. I wouldn’t. I think his production takes a dip in 2014 despite the park he plays in. The power might stick around but I don’t expect the average to at all especially if he doesn’t gain some sort of approach at the plate. Major-league pitchers are very good at figuring out patterns, and I think they’re about to figure out Rosario’s. —Mauricio Rubio
Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
From a real-life perspective, the Phillies’ logic behind giving a 35-year-old catcher a three-year deal makes some sense. In fantasy, while Ruiz is a safe choice, there is little if any upside. Chooch isn’t even a great bet for a lot of playing time; he has logged more than 450 plate appearances only once in his career. He is fine in two-catcher leagues, but there are multiple options that will go for less money/a lower draft slot than Ruiz who will put up similar or perhaps even slightly better numbers. —Mike Gianella
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Marlins
If Saltalamacchia hadn't lucked into an astronomical .372 BABIP in 2013, we may not need to have this conversation, but here we are. Despite the worst contact rate among MLB starting catchers (min. 300 PA) and a career strikeout rate hovering in the 30 percent range, Salty's rendezvous with lady luck pushed him into the top 10 for catcher value in standard 5x5 leagues last year. In addition to the artificially inflated batting average, though, a significant chunk of his value was tied to his RBI and R totals (ninth among catchers). A move from baseball’s highest-scoring offense to its lowest coupled with all-but-certain BABIP regression makes Salty one of the less appealing catching targets on draft day. Add in the fact that at least one of your league mates will probably be willing to pay an inflated price for his 2013 stats, and he’s an unequivocal stay-away. —Wilson Karaman
Matt Wieters, Orioles
You can almost put 22/75 in the bank from Wieters, but at what cost? Wieters has been a drain on your batting average the last two years with .249 and .235 efforts, because he simply shouldn’t be switch-hitting. When you’re that bad at something, can you really still say that you “do” it? Wieters has hit .224 and .214 against righties the last two seasons, helping him to those poor totals. And if he hadn’t hit .339 against lefties in 2011, his .235 against righties would’ve helped usher in another garbage total. At 28, the Matt Wieters Facts aren’t coming true. He simply isn’t going to be the player everyone expected back when he was obliterating the minor leagues. His price isn’t even particularly high these days, but I would still opt for guys Wilson Ramos, Jason Castro, and even Yan Gomes at a friendlier price. —Paul Sporer
Mike Zunino, Mariners
In yesterday’s piece about catching prospects, I spoke to how fantasy owners generally overrate catching prospects because the bar for being a relevant fantasy backstop is so low. In my opinion, that phenomenon is partially to blame for all of the hype Zunino received as a fast-moving catcher in the minors, and it’s a big reason why he’s poised to break some hearts over the next few years. With his decent power and ability to hit for modest averages Zunino should be a top-12 fantasy catcher at some point in his career, but after struggling mightily in Triple-A and the majors last season, you can’t expect him to produce much in 2014. Zunino has many of the markings of a player who was promoted too soon, and when you couple his accelerated path to the majors with how long offensive development takes for many catchers, the picture really isn’t pretty for a few more years. You might be tempted to view Zunino as a sleeper because of his past prospect status, but take a pass on him for next season. —Ben Carsley
First Basemen
by BP Fantasy Staff
First base is a very deep position, which affords fantasy owners plenty of opportunities to pad every offensive stat save for steals through their use. It also means that plays who whiff on their first base picks are automatically in a hole, an must make up for that lost ground elsewhere. Making up ground stinks, so be wary of these eight players.
Jose Abreu White Sox
This comes with a caveat, I’m not saying Jose Abreu will be a bust, but at a position like 1B, you have to get the production levels right. We don’t know what Jose Abreu will be in 2014; all we have are some reports and memories of his performance in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. In deeper leagues he’s worth a shot, but in a standard 5x5 league, there’s too much risk here to pursue him aggressively. Sure, sometimes a gamble like this can pay off like Yoenis Cespedes did, but I would strongly advise against taking a huge gamble at a position that produces at the level 1B does. —Mauricio Rubio
Matt Adams, Cardinals
Adams finished August with a .270/.332/.456 line along with nine homers and 36 RBIs in about a half season’s worth of games (83 to be exact). The 162-game pace would’ve netted him 18 HR and 71 RBI with the .788 OPS, a perfectly acceptable effort for a lower-tier first baseman. However, he got a chance for full-time work when Allen Craig went down in September and he did not let the opportunity pass him by. In just 25 games, he nearly doubled his home run potential with an explosive .315/.344/.609 line including eight home runs and 15 RBI. The sprint to the finish line upped his 162-game pace to 26/77 with an 839 OPS.
Several early projections have him reaching that home run in 2014, but there are some concerns that leave me skeptical:
He had a 22 percent HR/FB rate in 2013.
This in itself isn’t a concern, as the top rung of power-hitting first basemen have high HR/FB outputs, but he doesn’t have an established track record for it like a Chris Davis or Ryan Howard.
The rest of his profile isn’t very conducive to a 22 percent HR/FB rate.
Adams only had a 36 percent fly-ball rate last year. Looking at first basemen with a 20 percent or higher HR/FB rate over the last three years combined, only two of the 10 had a fly-ball percentage that low: Miguel Cabrera (35.7 percent) and Michael Morse (32.4 percent). First off, it’s a small group of outliers to even join, but we know he’s no Cabrera, and while he could be Morse, that might not be such a positive outlook, since we have seen just the one big year from him.
Only one guy in the group had a ground-ball rate as high as the 44 percent of Adams.
It was Morse at 48 percent. Of course, that’s part of the reason Morse only hit 18 homers in 2012 despite a 23 percent HR/FB rate. Adams doesn’t hit enough flyballs or line drives to live in the 20+ percent HR/FB range. He looks like more of a 20-home run hitter than someone pushing into the mid-20s.
He struggled against lefties (654 OPS) which could eat into his playing time.
This is the weakest of the factors, because it was only 52 PA and the Cardinals may be willing to eat that in an effort to give him experience against southpaws and make him better. Plus, he had an .877 OPS against them during his last three seasons in the minors (244 PA).
This is more of a soft-avoid for Adams depending on price. I think his price will vary greatly league to league depending on how much stock is put in the bottom line which was inflated by that hot September. The depth of first base should keep him from being too overrated, but there is enough depth at third base, too, so you don’t need to overvalue Adams as a possible corner infielder, either. —Paul Sporer
Brandon Belt, Giants
Let me just start by imploring you to put down your pitchforks. Please, put down your pitchforks. Now that you are (hopefully) disarmed, let me discuss why I'm unlikely to own Brandon Belt on any of my teams this year. I like him from a skill perspective, I really do, but the hype has just gotten a little too rich for my tastes. We, at BP, have him ranked as the no. 10 first baseman, ahead of the likes of Allen Craig and Mark Trumbo. I just don't see it. He won't be a .300 hitter with that strikeout rate. He won't be a 25-home-run hitter in that ballpark. He's unlikely to steal double-digit bases. And those counting stats are not going to be there the way you'd want out of your starting first baseman. He's a good all-around player, but I'm not going to be the guy paying for a breakout based on a two-month sample to close out 2013. —Bret Sayre
Allen Craig, Cardinals
While Craig was baseball’s best hitter with runners in scoring position (.454/.500/.638), The Wrench missed most of September in a walking boot and left his owners high and dry at the most important time. Craig did top 90 RBI for the second consecutive season, but a drop in power (13 home runs in 2013, 22 in 2012) was the biggest letdown for his owners. Craig’s floor is relatively safe, but exactly what is the ceiling here? I’ll gladly take another 15 home runs and 90 RBI, but not if it means spending a top-10 pick at the position. His power numbers will need to rebound in order to make an early selection worthwhile. And judging from last year’s 28.1 percent fly-ball rate, it’s not a likely scenario. —Alex Kantecki
Justin Morneau, Rockies
After landing in perhaps the best possible place for his fantasy value, Morneau has seen a climb back up the ranks in many preseason first baseman valuations this offseason. While Coors Field will certainly stand to help the former MVP, I caution against projecting Morneau to rebound significantly. Morneau gets a lot of flack for being “injury prone,” but he’s accumulated more than 1,200 PA over the past two years and has averaged 18 homers, 77 RBI and an average around .263 per season. It’s possible that an uptick in BABIP and Coors could combine to boost his overall stat line, but Morneau is entering his age-33 season and the odds of him seeing drastic improvement are fairly slim. Add in that he has no business batting against lefties, and I think Morneau will struggle to finish as a top-20 fantasy 1B in 2014. He’s a fine grab as a bench option in mixed leagues, but don’t count on him as a starting CI. —Ben Carsley
Ryan Howard, Phillies
At the right price, Howard will be a good player to own in NL-only and very deep mixed leagues. However, there is a good deal of risk associated with a 34-year-old slugger whose profile as a heavier slugger doesn’t speak to a bounce back year or even a gradual decline. Howard hasn’t hit lefties with any kind of authority since 2010 and hasn’t played a full season since 2011. Howard believers are going to point to improved overall numbers in June and July before knee surgery ended his 2013 campaign, but the sample size is too small to give it much merit. While a strict platoon is unlikely given Howard’s albatross of a contract, it would not be surprising in the least if Darin Ruf and John Mayberry Jr. spelled Howard against southpaws now and again. Twenty-five home runs and a .280 batting average is probably a very generous upside for Howard, but there is way too much that can go wrong here to target anything close to those numbers for your fantasy lineup. —Mike Gianella
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
I do think he gets overrated just a tad, as people combine his batting average from 2012 (.285) with his home run total from 2013 (23) and then project growth from there. I’m not sure that’s a fair thing to do to a young player like Rizzo.” That’s me in the Cubs fantasy preview, and it’s the reason I’m “avoiding” Rizzo this year. I still like him as a player, both now and in the long term, but I think people are bumping him up their draft charts based on an upside that he isn’t quite ready to fulfill. I like Rizzo as a .260s, 22-25-home-run type. I acknowledge that there’s the upside to hit in the .280s and enough power to at least approach 30 home runs. I don’t think those two things happen in concert though, and without that tandem, I think the upside is getting overvalued. This isn’t to say Rizzo won’t be worthwhile asset in fantasy this year—he will—but I fear that where you have to draft him, robs him of the majority of his value. —Craig Goldstein
Mark Teixeira, Yankees
I talked in my "Target" piece this week about the value of consistency and its appeal for a player like Adrian Gonzalez. Prior to 2013 Mark Teixeira would've offered the same appeal. Teix overhauled his approach when he arrived at Yankee Stadium in 2009 to play more to the short porch. It led to more HR than his prior incarnation offset by chasing significantly more balls out of the zone and a lower BA. After a final peak season at Age 29 when he was runner-up to Joe Mauer’s MVP Teixeira put up BA's of .256, .248, and .251 over the next three seasons with ISO's of .225, .246, and .224. He remained pretty much the same hitter throughout the run, though his RBI & R totals did decline on account of a weakening lineup around him. But then 2013 happened. And losing a full season at age 34 to a wrist injury, with his skillset and body type, is a big deal. Yes he comes back to the same favorable park and a re-built lineup around him. However, with an already suspect BA profile and a significant question now about how much his power will rebound with a surgically rebuilt wrist I’d just as soon let somebody else in your league find out the answer. —Wilson Karaman
Second Basemen
by BP Fantasy Staff
For previous editions of this series, click below:
Players to Avoid: Catchers
Players to Avoid: First Base
The BP Fantasy Staff doesn’t want your dreams of fantasy success to become a hellish reality of mediocrity in the standings this season. So, maybe don’t draft these guys. You can do better. You deserve better.
Jose Altuve, Astros
The idea that steals are overvalued in mixed leagues is an overblown one, but in some cases the old canard applies, and it most certainly applies with Altuve. His extremely high ground-ball rate combined with his diminutive size is likely to always limit Altuve’s power potential and he is fairly underwhelming as a hitter. On a better major-league team, Altuve might be worth owning for his ability to score runs, but the Astros offense is a liability from a fantasy perspective and this isn’t something that is likely to change in 2014. In an -only league, by all means chase those steals, but in other formats, exercise caution. —Mike Gianella
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
Let’s make one thing clear: I may have targeted Neil Walker, but I’m not under the illusion that he’s better than Carpenter. That said, while the skills are better for Carpenter, I don’t think the gulf is as dramatic as it may seem. Both are contact oriented, non-speed types. Carpenter has a bit more pop and benefits from playing in a much stronger lineup, but his major value came from an absurd number of runs scored. Part of that was due to the Cardinals across the board incredible hitting with RISP, and while they’re still a great lineup, we can count on some regression there. Carpenter also excelled in RBI, another context-driven stat that is subject to variability. While there’s a strong argument that the context remains largely similar for Carpenter, thus the numbers should play out similarly, I always prefer to gamble on skills than situation. With the price you’re going to have to pay for Carpenter coming off his incredible season, you’re better off targeting a poor man’s version of him at a significantly reduced price. —Craig Goldstein
Howie Kendrick, Angles
If it feels like forever ago that you read your first article about Howie Kendrick's breakout potential, that's because it probably was. He's been playing in the majors since 2006. He's 30 years old now. I'm going to write that again, because it's important: he's thirty years old now. At a certain point players are who they are, and perhaps nobody in Major League Baseball exemplifies this quite like Kendrick. A former 10th-round pick from an unheralded Florida community college, Kendrick laid total and absolute waste to some of the most hitter-friendly environments in the minor leagues on his way to Anaheim. His career minor-league triple-slash line of .360/.403/.569 in over 1,750 plate appearances is the stuff of legend, and the helium it generated lasts arguably to this day. I don’t want to discount his contributions since those heady days, as Kendrick has been a fine and steady performer for many years now, and that has value. Over the past five seasons, he's hit between .279 and .297 every season and averaged exactly 11.8 homeruns and 11.8 steals a year. Fine numbers, but... well... kinda boring in fantasy baseball. He's never quite taken that leap we thought might be coming, and at this point in his career the odds are getting awfully long that he ever will. He finished 15th among second basemen last season and is currently going off the board 13th for 2014. The limited ceiling coupled with that draft position doesn’t leave much room to generate value, and that’s what you want to be doing once you hit the middle rounds of a draft. I’d just as soon look elsewhere for a better opportunity at the keystone. —Wilson Karaman
Daniel Murphy, Mets
I owned Murphy last season. Murphy was great last season. But that was last season. According to the most recent NFBC ADP, he’s the no. 10 second baseman, ahead of Aaron Hill, Chase Utley, and Neil Walker. I prefer all three to Murphy, whose value was enhanced by 23 stolen bases, up from 10 in 2012. If he repeats and steals 20 more, I’m going to look stupid for avoiding the Mets’ second baseman. But steals are the ultimate wild card; even if I give him 15, that’s a 35 percent decrease and he’ll need to make up for it by beating last year’s 92 runs and 78 RBI. With a .121 ISO and a 31 percent fly-ball rate since the start of 2012, double-digit home runs aren’t even a sure thing. I believe Murphy can reproduce a .286 BA, but I’d be much more excited to own him if he filled out my MI spot. I’m not about to pay for last season. —Alex Kantecki
Brandon Phillips, Reds
Every so often a player with track record and consistency in one category will post more of the same in a given year, right as the rest of his secondary skills fall off precipitously. That was the case with Phillips in 2013, who once again posted 18 HRs, a trend four years running, but saw a decline in slugging, wOBA, and ISO. Phillips isn't likely to swipe bags anymore, and at 33 it's tough projecting much of an improvement with the bat moving forward. Can Phillips have a dead-cat bounce and come back with a .450-plus SLG and an average over .290 with 18 bombs? Yeah, but those odds are long in my estimation, and I'm not one to take a gamble on Phillips when there's enough talent at the keystone that ranks above the Reds' 2B. —Mauricio Rubio
Rickie Weeks, Brewers
Tools are seductive. Middle infielders are seductive. The Brewers’ throwback uniforms are seductive. Weeks is a sexy player who teems with upside and the remains of lofty expectations only somewhat fulfilled. In 2010 and 2011, he was one of the best second baseman in the game. In 2012, he took a big step back but was still useful for fantasy purposes. And last year he fell off a cliff, once again succumbing to injuries, seeing a decline in power and speed and letting a poor BABIP drag his average down to just .209. Weeks has never been a particularly strong pure hitter, and now that his flashier tools are in decline it’s tough to see where the value will come from. He’s entering his age-31 season, meaning he’s not “done,” but his best days are likely behind him, and Scooter Gennett will begin the year as the Brewers’ starting 2B. I think it’s likely that Weeks ends up starting against lefties this year, but I don’t think he sees enough playing time to put up solid counting stats, and a transition off of second base could be coming, too. Overall, this is a situation fantasy owners are best left avoiding. —Ben Carsley
Kolten Wong, Cardinals
I'm a big supporter of Wong's long-term value for the Cardinals, but he's likely to remain a better real-life player than fantasy one until he either moves up in the lineup or is let loose on the base paths. The first of those two will be easier to overcome, as it's unclear who will start the season at the number two spot in the lineup. However, if it isn't Wong, he'll have a tough time accruing the types of counting stats he'll need to return value on his draft spot, and this ties in with the second point. The Cardinals finished 2013 second-to-last in stolen bases and even though some of that comes from personnel, Mike Matheny appears to be a conservative manager when it comes to the green light. In the right situation, Wong could run enough to steal 25 bags, but expecting more than about 15 isn't something I'm willing to do until I see it with my own eyes. On top of all this, Wong's backup is just someone who has been worth at least 2.5 bWAR in each of the last two years. So, you know, no pressure, kid. —Bret Sayre
Shortstops
by BP Fantasy Staff
Shortstop isn't as shallow as you think for fantasy purposes. So don't mess up by taking a shortstop who isn't good. This is the analysis you came here for.
Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
Cabrera is a confusing player to forecast from an analytics point of view. He's increased his line-drive percentage over the past few seasons, yet his BABIP has been worse. He's hitting more fly balls, yet fewer of them are going for home runs and his ISO has seen a sharp drop from his glory days of 2011. He's stealing fewer bases, striking out a bit mor,e and walking a bit less, and his batting average has fallen in each of the past five seasons.
That being said, Cabrera is entering his age-28 season and as my colleague Mike Gianella pointed out in the counterpart to this piece, Cabrera will still have some value in 2014. I think his days of hitting anywhere near .300 or challenging for 20 homers are well in the past, though, and what we're left with is a MI-type in standard leagues with little upside and declining speed. Unfortunately, his peak season probably came early. —Ben Carsley
Starlin Castro, Cubs
There are a lot of questions revolving around whether or not Castro will rebound, but forget about all of that for a moment. The two biggest concerns surrounding Castro involve whether or not he’ll run again and whether or not that Cubs lineup will produce enough for him to see much of a jump in runs/RBI at all. If Castro doesn’t run and is only good for 10-12 steals in 2014, you’re drafting a shortstop who is probably going to hit 12-14 home runs with a .280-.290 average even if he does bounce back. That’s solid—and definitely would be an improvement from his moribund 2013—but it pushes him well out of the realm of elite performers at the position. —Mike Gianella
Alcides Escobar, Royals
Escobar has his selling points—namely speed—as he went 22-for-22 in stolen bases last year. Still, that was a marked drop from his 35 swipes the year before, and with Norichika Aoki in town, it’s unlikely he’ll benefit from batting atop the Royals’ potent lineup, something he did in 49 percent of his plate appearances last season. While his batting average should receive a bump thanks to some better BABIP luck, it won’t be enough to offset the minimal power he offers, combined with the lower counting stats he’ll get at the bottom of the lineup. Given that he was already under 60 runs and RBI, that’s a hit he can’t really afford to take. Stolen bases are worth plenty, and they’re worth more as the run game continues to decline, but given where you’re going to take Escobar, there are better options available. —Craig Goldstein
Derek Jeter, Yankees
This is perhaps shooting fish in the barrel, but if for any reason you have any inclination to try to trust the name that accompanies the current iteration of Derek Jeter, don’t. I would hazard a guess that over the next few weeks, you’ll read story after story detailing the Captain’s batting practice sessions and how he’s hitting the ball with more authority. The myth surrounding Jeter will obfuscate the reality that is Jeter. He’ll be 40 in June, he’s coming back off a severe injury, and he plays a highly demanding position. It’s likely that he already had his HoFer late-career boon with a surprising 2012, and it’s irresponsible to expect him to do it again at an advanced age. Sure, heroes get remembered and legends never die, but not even the Babe could outrun the cruel claws of age. —Mauricio Rubio
Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
Ramirez was a nice surprise for a White Sox team that finished with a fourth-worst .299 wOBA. In terms of fantasy, it was the shortstop’s best season since 2010, when he smacked 18 home runs and swiped 13 bags. He’s no longer someone you can trust with the long ball, however, with declining ISOs over the previous four seasons, from .146 in 2010 to .096 in 2013. His home run total fell to just six a year ago, and—with only 68 runs and 48 RBI—Ramirez’s value was tied almost entirely to a career-best 30 steals. I’m very skeptical he can reach that level again, as the shortstop stole 27 bases the previous two seasons combined. Ramirez enters 2014 at age 32, and—thanks to the work of FanGraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman—we know steals at that age often see a steep decline. The batting average will be fine, but if he’s not giving you 20 or more steals, Ramirez is a middling middle-infield option on a below-average offense. —Alex Kantecki
Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
This is more of a "keep your expectations in a whole bunch of check" advisory than an out-and-out "avoid." It's awful tempting to look at Rollins' 2013 and dismiss it almost entirely given the track record and severity of just how bad he was last year - especially since he hit 23 homers and stole 30 bases as recently as 2012. But counting on a rebound to previous production levels, or really anything close to them, is a pretty significant risk, and owners should not be paying for Rollins as an upside play this year.
His contact rate is on the wrong side of a fairly prototypical career bell curve, bottoming out at 86.8 percent last year—his worst effort since 2003. His swinging strike rate is also in the midst of a four-year increase, indicating some very probable age-related erosion to his bat speed. For a player who’s historically a tenuous AVG play it’s a troubling combination. And while last year's 3.3 percent HR:FB rate was likely a significant outlier to his career 7.7 percent mark, he did lose almost 20 feet per fly ball, and that’s a huge number. Ten to 12 homers is probably an appropriate ceiling to expect.
Finally, he ran less often last year, with a stolen base attempt in only 4.2 percent of his plate appearances—well below his 5.8 percent career mark and the continuation of a three-year decline. His success rate, while remaining strong enough, was nonetheless down as well, and at age 35, it’s more likely those numbers continue down than rebound up. A guy with a ceiling of .245/11/20 and mediocre R/RBI production is not terrible, and certainly playable in most standard 14-16-team leagues. But it also offers little room for return on investment from a player currently going 15th overall among shortstops. Buyers should be aware of what they’re paying for if they invest in Rollins this year. —Wilson Karaman
Jean Segura, Brewers
This feels a bit vanilla, and yet I am still seeing him valued as the third or fourth shortstop in a lot of spots. He got worse every month of the season. Of cours, when you start as hot as he did in April and May, it makes sense to regress, but he collapsed. He hit 67 percent of his home runs and drove in 43 percent of his runs in those first two months. He hit one home run in the final three months, including an impossibly bad August and September with zero homers and just seven RBI.
The only thing that salvaged his value in the summer was his consistent speed. A repeat of 12 homers would be a massive surprise; I honestly think half of that total would be a win. I’m seeing more of a .280-72-6-52-38 season from him, and that is definitely good, especially at shortstop, but not worth the current price. I’ve still got him in the top 10, but it’s toward the back end of the list. —Paul Sporer
Third Baseman
by BP Fantasy Staff
I'm out of hot corner puns, so… just maybe don't draft these players.
Nick Castellanos, Tigers
If there's been a running theme in my avoid picks for this series it's that I'm not a big advocate of paying retail for rookie hitters, even in the face of what we've seen recently with the Trouts, Harpers, and Machados of the world. Machados? Machadoes? Let's call the whole thing off. Even in a high-end realistic scenario in which Castellanos lives up to his potential right away and stays in the lineup all season, we shouldn't be expecting more than around a .275 average and 15 homers—which would be a great rookie campaign for him. But the potential pitfalls are numerous. The easy pitfall is that he struggles at the plate, but possibly the more important one is that he struggles in the field. Castellanos was no sure bet to stay at third base long-term before the Prince Fielder signing shifted Miguel Cabrera to his "natural" position. Now that he's back, he's going to have to prove he doesn't deserve a second tour of duty in left field, where he'd have more competition for full-time at bats. —Bret Sayre
Todd Frazier - Cincinnati Reds
Consistent power is Frazier’s calling card, as he’s posted back to back 19-home-run seasons. His value varied wildly in those years though, as he hit .273 in 2012 and .234 in 2013. That can be blamed on his batting average on balls in play a bit, as he went from .316 to .269, but that doesn’t mean it can be blamed solely on bad luck. In 2012, Frazier had a fly-ball rate just south of 45 percent so a league average (or slightly above) BABIP would seem to indicate good fortune. While he did drop his fly-ball clip to under 40 percent for 2013, he also lost four percentage points off his line-drive rate, which means he wasn’t making the hard contact he was previously. The difference in production meant that Frazier went from being 21 percent above league average in 2012 to precisely league average in 2013. This isn’t to say Frazier can’t rebound, but with 20 home runs appearing to be an upper limit, the upside isn’t there to pop him over some other options, especially with his RBI opportunities taking a hit now that Shin-Soo Choo is in Texas. —Craig Goldstein
Chase Headley, Padres
Headley does a lot of things well. He has seasons in which he hits over .280. He has seasons in which he hits 30-plus homers. He has seasons in which he steals 15-plus bases. He's a nice, well-rounded player. The problem with evaluating Headley is that one tends to hope he’ll eventually put all of those numbers together in a single, MVP-caliber campaign—but that’s quite unlikely to be the case. Headley is entering his age-30 season, still plays in the worst offensive ballpark in the majors, bats in the middle of a bad lineup, and saw his average fall off a cliff last season despite a favorable BABIP. His days of swiping double-digit bags could very well be over, and it should be apparent that his 31-homer season is the outlier—not his multiple 10-13-homer campaigns. Again, this is a well-rounded player who should see a rebound in average from 2014, but he's not the breakout candidate many predict, even if he does end up being dealt to the Yankees in June. He's a good, unspectacular option for 2014, so "avoid" is harsh, but I certainly wouldn't reach for him or project him to break out. —Ben Carsley
Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
I’m 100 percent guilty of over-hyping Lawrie based on 43 games in 2011. That was my first practical lesson is small sample sizes on the fantasy beat, so, naturally, I now have a hard time trusting most tiny samples, especially when they are presented to me in toothpick form at a local grocery. In two seasons since his rookie year, Lawrie has collected 22 home runs and 22 stolen bases. That’s the kind of production I expected him to provide in one season, not two. Lawrie is still capable of giving us a 15/15 season, but he needs to stay on the field first. He’s been on the DL three times since his big-league debut, appearing in 107 games in 2013 after playing in 125 the year before. Maybe my sights were set too high following his call-up to the show, but Lawrie isn’t someone I can trust to man the hot corner, even if he comes at a discount. If he does stay healthy, I'll no longer feel like I'm missing out. —Alex Kantecki
Manny Machado, Orioles
I’m actually a huge Machado fan, but I worry that the 2B-into-HR idea is being overplayed while the serious knee surgery is being underplayed. I think the latter is going to lop off some of the MLB-best 667 at-bats that he had last year, and if the former doesn’t come (and there’s no guarantee it will), then the numbers just aren’t there for superstardom in 2014. The knee is also a concern for stolen bases, as if the 6-for-13 success (and I hesitate to use that word) rate weren’t worrisome enough. I really want to be wrong here and without the knee issue, I’d be all-in on Machado. As it stands, I’m looking at 2015 as the potential breakout season. —Paul Sporer
Mike Moustakas, Royals
There isn’t enough power here to justify carrying such a poor batting average, particularly in mixed leagues. While Moustakas’ infield-fly-ball rates have improved since his rookie campaign in 2011, his 16.6 perecnt rate is still way too high for a hitter who is going to need to hit home runs to justify a spot on your fantasy roster. The presence of Danny Valencia isn’t going to help either. Moustakas might not find himself in a strict platoon, but Valencia’s strong bat against lefties is going to keep him in the line-up against southpaws more often than not. There’s a place for Moustakas in deeper mixed and -only leagues, but paying for what was once his ceiling isn’t a shrewd idea. —Mike Gianella
Pablo Sandoval, Giants
Heading into his age-27 season and having reportedly lost 40 pounds this offseason, Sandoval has all the makings of a popular spring training helium guy and bounce-back candidate. But he’ll be among the risker options around, and unless he falls significantly in your draft, it’s tough to make a case that he’ll be worth the gamble.
Sandoval's been two very different players in his five full-ish seasons in the majors. In 2009 and 2011, he was a guy who posted HR/FB rates that spiked into the mid-teens, while his other three seasons that number’s been planted firmly in the single digits. Given hamate surgeries on each wrist since that last double-digit showing, a home park that is the worst in the Majors for left-handed power (and fifth worst for right-handed power), and the earlier physical peak heavy players tend to experience, it’s much more likely than not that his days as a 20-home-run hitter are done. The other key issue as alluded to above is health. He’s hit the DL in each of the past three seasons with a wide array of upper and lower body injuries, and there’s just a much greater built-in risk of more injuries to come for him given body type and history. Sandoval’s currently going 13th among third basemen at the end of the 12th round. But if I miss out on a top-tier third baseman and find myself looking for one at that point in a draft, I’ll be much more inclined to make an upside play with at least a chance of returning positive value on my investment. With Sandoval you’re just hoping he stays healthy long enough for you to break even, and that’s a poor investment of draft-day resources. —Wilson Karaman
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
This is a bit of a soft avoid, as it has been termed around these parts. Zimmerman remains a valuable play at third when he’s healthy. There are some red flags, though. The pop-up rate has increased the past two years, and so has the strikeout clip. Neither of those numbers is my primary cause for concern, however. Zimmerman has a long list of injuries on his page and they are the types of injuries that tend to stay with a player as his career goes along. Yes, Zimmerman has played 145-plus games in each of the past two seasons but given the other options at third, I’m more than willing to take a pass on Zimmerman and let another owner find out how many games he’ll play this year. —Mauricio Rubio
Outfielders
by BP Fantasy Staff
There are nearly 90 starting outfielders in baseball, plus countless (not literally) platoon players, reserves, and prospects who all man the position. You have a lot of players to choose from. Don't choose one of the following.
Michael Bourn, Indians
Considering Michael Bourn’s previous track record it’d be silly to think he’s never going to steal 30 bases again, and PECOTA has him threatening 40 in 2014. What concerns me with Bourn is the slide in overall numbers. In the two years prior to landing in Cleveland, Bourn posted True Averages in the .260-plus range. Last year, his TAv fell to .247 as he saw a slide all across his slash line. Bourn is sliding into “two-category player” status, and you can get guys like Will Venable and Ben Revere later than Bourn. —Mauricio Rubio
Curtis Granderson, Mets
Despite last year’s dreadful slash line of .229/.317/.407, plus seven home runs and 15 RBI in 61 games, the Mets inked Granderson to a four-year, $60 million contract in an effort to shore up an offense with little talent outside of David Wright and Daniel Murphy. The over-commitment reminds me of the one the Braves dished out to B.J. Upton last offseason, and we all know how that ended up in year no. 1. I don’t doubt that Granderson has something left, but Citi Field isn’t kind to left-handed power, which is his greatest strength. The last two seasons, Granderson has hit worse than .235; can you really take that big of a hit in batting average if you’re not guaranteed 30 home runs? Unless he really falls in drafts, I don’t see the opportunity to return value. —Alex Kantekcki
Starling Marte, Pirates
Marte put together a breakthrough 2013 campaign in which he hit .280 and stole 41 bases despite a DL stint for an injured hand. And fantasy managers appear to have bought into the season as a sign of things to come, as Marte's currently going off the board 24th among outfielders and in the top 60 overall. But there are some bright red flags waving majestically in the breeze, and Marte's a tenuous bet to build upon or even replicate his 2013 numbers. His approach at the plate could generously be described as not good. He walked in just 4.4 percent of his plate appearances last season after a five percent career minor-league rate, and he saw his OBP propped up by an unsustainable 21 HBP.
He also managed that .280 average on the back of a .366 BABIP and despite a 24.4 percent whiff rate that ballooned to almost 30 percent in the second half of the season. Even if we grant that his skillset is more likely to be able to support an above-average BABIP, a repeat of that .366 mark is incredibly unlikely. And all of the major underlying metrics that generally drive a poor strikeout rate (poor contact rate, high percentage of swinging strikes, high percentage of balls chased out of the zone) were all present in spades in his plate-discipline profile. All of this is to say that major-league pitchers are very unlikely to work him the same way next year, and we saw some of that adjustment take shape over the course of last season. Unless he shows a sudden ability to completely transform his approach at the plate, he's a prime candidate for a possibly significant AVG and OBP regression. That means less of all the counting stats in addition to the AVG fall, and a negative return on investment for owners forking over a fifth-round pick for his services. —Wilson Karaman
Yasiel Puig, Dodgers
As often is the case for players I write about in this space, this isn’t a truly a recommendation to avoid Puig completely, but rather a caution to tread carefully. Puig is a superstar in the making, but there is often an exuberance that comes with sophomores—particularly those entering their first full season—that isn’t warranted. Puig has consistently been a top-25 pick in drafts and a $30-plus player in the early NL-only auctions I have participated in so far. Puig is going to have to not only duplicate last year’s performance, but add to it a great deal to reach those targets. As we have seen even in the cases of uber-elite prospects like Bryce Harper, the road isn’t always linear. Puig is fine for me in the fourth round or in the mid-$20s, but you’re not going to get him there, and you shouldn’t chase him past that point. —Mike Gianella
Mark Trumbo, Diamondbacks
I had a time choosing an outfielder to avoid, but settled on Trumbo. The 30-95 of the last three years is nice, but the batting average drag and uninspired run totals (which have something to do with his team, but plenty to do with a .300 OBP in that span, including two sub-.300 seasons) have led to just one $20 season among the trio. His career highs in R, HR, and RBI last year still only landed him 84th on the ESPN Player Rater, and yet he’s being taken as the 70th player off the board thanks to a move into a friendlier home ballpark. He struggles against righties (.685 OPS in 2013; .748 career) and only has one exemplary year against lefties (last year’s .923 OPS). What if he doesn’t come storming out of the gates one of these seasons (first-half OPS: 841; second-half: 679)? Tread carefully here. —Paul Sporer
Jayson Werth, Nationals
The argument here isn’t against Werth as a player—because he’s a quality one. It’s that he’s not likely to produce the season he did in 2013, and is being drafted as a top-30 outfielder (per fantasypros.com) at the current time. Even with regression, he’s likely to produce that kind of value if he can play a full season, raising the question—why avoid him? Well, he’s no sure bet to play a full slate of games, entering his age-35 season. While he had a healthy run in Philadelphia, he’s missed 30-plus games in two of his three seasons with the Nationals, and an injury history longer than his beard and not nearly as inspiring. Again, his ability to contribute when healthy isn’t at stake here—even if he is more likely to be in line with his career .274/.367/.471 slash line than the .318/.391/.532 he produced in 2013—but his ability to do it over a full season is. He’s not getting any younger, and while he could produce surplus value if he manages to stay upright, that’s a risk I’m happy to let someone else take. —Craig Goldstein
Chris Young, Mets
In our internal discussions for this series, Paul Sporer advised me against writing up Chris Young. "Who wants Chris Young anymore?" was the general gist of Paul's sentiment. But then we began talking about the man-crush we've both held for Young at various points in our fantasy careers, and it convinced me that he's still worth addressing here. Young averaged a .240/.319/.438 line from 2007-2011, with counting stats of 23 homers, 20 steals, 71 RBI, and 81 runs per season. It's that four-category fantasy upside that so many find intoxicating, especially as Young now has little competition for playing time in New York.
Unfortunately, Young's past two seasons have seen his hit tool further regress, and while the power/speed is still there and still tempting, his average has shifted from "tolerable" to "burdensome." Contextual factors, such as Young's new ballpark and his weak supporting cast, figure to further depress his counting stats, which is really all you can rely on him for at this point. Add in that Young has been especially poor against RHP, and there's a chance that he could become something of a short-side platoon player, too. I want to believe again, but there's too much conspiring against Young to make him as attractive a sleeper as many believe for 2014. —Ben Carsley
"There is no limit to what can be accomplished when nobody cares who gets the credit."
by BP Fantasy Staff
On Monday, the BP Fantasy staff brought you a collection of catchers you’d be wise to target in your drafts this season. Because every internet column has an equal and opposite column, we shall now bring you the names of many backstops you should avoid.
Travis d’Arnaud, Mets
Dissing d’Arnaud, while certainly a catchy name for a cover band, isn’t something I jumped at. In long-term leagues, by all means, go crazy. But for the upcoming season, I’m not going out of my way for any Met not named David Wright (pitchers not included). The 24-year-old will be buried at the bottom of a New York lineup that finished 29th in terms of wOBA (.297) in 2013, and while the team might be marginally better with Curtis Granderson onboard, I’m not seeing an offensive revival of great significance. We have only 31 games of major-league data to go by, and that small sample size produced a lowly line of .202/.286/.263 and one home run. A full-time job doesn’t guarantee anything—even for a former no. 1 organizational prospect—and I’m afraid the name might outweigh d’Arnaud’s actual value on draft day. —Alex Kantecki
Devin Mesoraco, Reds
There's no question that Mesoraco has been a bust so far in his major-league career, but it's hard to hold that against him as he's gotten inconsistent playing time from former manager Dusty Baker and catchers tend to develop slowly at the plate. However, with the depth of mid-range options at catcher this year, I'd prefer to spend my draft-day dollars (especially in a two-catcher league) on one of the similarly priced options with more safety. In a one-catcher league, it's much less of a risk as you've likely waited on catcher if you're starting Mesoraco and there are other names in our rankings available on the wire. If faced with the decision of Mesoraco versus Alex Avila, Welington Castillo, or A.J. Pierzynski, I might as well rename my team "No Devins.” —Bret Sayre
Salvador Perez, Royals
Perez is another guy who doesn’t walk much, but rarely misses, which allows his impressive average to play up even more, given how often he makes contact. He also has the benefit of the Royals catching him more than other teams play their own catchers. That said, with Perez, it all comes down to whether the power comes. At only 23 years old, it’s too early to say anything definitively, but it seems like people are holding on to the 11 home runs in 305 plate-appearances in 2012 and overlooking the 13 he had in 526 PA last year. He’s very clearly a useful player, and might produce top-10 value even without a 20-home-run season. The issue is where you have to reach for him to get him. He’s being valued as a top-seven type of catcher, and the honest truth is that you should be able to get a guy like Jason Castro (less average, more power, more on-base) rounds later. —Craig Goldstein
Wilin Rosario, Rockies
Rosario followed up an impressive 2012 campaign with a strong 2013 as he slashed .292/.315/.486 with 21 HR and good RBI/R numbers. However, Rosario sported a 3.2 BB percentage in 2013 and he saw a big jump in BABIP from .289 in 2012 to .344 in 2013. Given the body type and LD% (22.9 percent) I doubt Rosario will be sporting a .290-plus average in 2014. Rosario will go high because there’s a genuine lack of offensive talent at the position. Owners will see a .292/21 guy available at the C position and pounce. I wouldn’t. I think his production takes a dip in 2014 despite the park he plays in. The power might stick around but I don’t expect the average to at all especially if he doesn’t gain some sort of approach at the plate. Major-league pitchers are very good at figuring out patterns, and I think they’re about to figure out Rosario’s. —Mauricio Rubio
Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
From a real-life perspective, the Phillies’ logic behind giving a 35-year-old catcher a three-year deal makes some sense. In fantasy, while Ruiz is a safe choice, there is little if any upside. Chooch isn’t even a great bet for a lot of playing time; he has logged more than 450 plate appearances only once in his career. He is fine in two-catcher leagues, but there are multiple options that will go for less money/a lower draft slot than Ruiz who will put up similar or perhaps even slightly better numbers. —Mike Gianella
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Marlins
If Saltalamacchia hadn't lucked into an astronomical .372 BABIP in 2013, we may not need to have this conversation, but here we are. Despite the worst contact rate among MLB starting catchers (min. 300 PA) and a career strikeout rate hovering in the 30 percent range, Salty's rendezvous with lady luck pushed him into the top 10 for catcher value in standard 5x5 leagues last year. In addition to the artificially inflated batting average, though, a significant chunk of his value was tied to his RBI and R totals (ninth among catchers). A move from baseball’s highest-scoring offense to its lowest coupled with all-but-certain BABIP regression makes Salty one of the less appealing catching targets on draft day. Add in the fact that at least one of your league mates will probably be willing to pay an inflated price for his 2013 stats, and he’s an unequivocal stay-away. —Wilson Karaman
Matt Wieters, Orioles
You can almost put 22/75 in the bank from Wieters, but at what cost? Wieters has been a drain on your batting average the last two years with .249 and .235 efforts, because he simply shouldn’t be switch-hitting. When you’re that bad at something, can you really still say that you “do” it? Wieters has hit .224 and .214 against righties the last two seasons, helping him to those poor totals. And if he hadn’t hit .339 against lefties in 2011, his .235 against righties would’ve helped usher in another garbage total. At 28, the Matt Wieters Facts aren’t coming true. He simply isn’t going to be the player everyone expected back when he was obliterating the minor leagues. His price isn’t even particularly high these days, but I would still opt for guys Wilson Ramos, Jason Castro, and even Yan Gomes at a friendlier price. —Paul Sporer
Mike Zunino, Mariners
In yesterday’s piece about catching prospects, I spoke to how fantasy owners generally overrate catching prospects because the bar for being a relevant fantasy backstop is so low. In my opinion, that phenomenon is partially to blame for all of the hype Zunino received as a fast-moving catcher in the minors, and it’s a big reason why he’s poised to break some hearts over the next few years. With his decent power and ability to hit for modest averages Zunino should be a top-12 fantasy catcher at some point in his career, but after struggling mightily in Triple-A and the majors last season, you can’t expect him to produce much in 2014. Zunino has many of the markings of a player who was promoted too soon, and when you couple his accelerated path to the majors with how long offensive development takes for many catchers, the picture really isn’t pretty for a few more years. You might be tempted to view Zunino as a sleeper because of his past prospect status, but take a pass on him for next season. —Ben Carsley
First Basemen
by BP Fantasy Staff
First base is a very deep position, which affords fantasy owners plenty of opportunities to pad every offensive stat save for steals through their use. It also means that plays who whiff on their first base picks are automatically in a hole, an must make up for that lost ground elsewhere. Making up ground stinks, so be wary of these eight players.
Jose Abreu White Sox
This comes with a caveat, I’m not saying Jose Abreu will be a bust, but at a position like 1B, you have to get the production levels right. We don’t know what Jose Abreu will be in 2014; all we have are some reports and memories of his performance in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. In deeper leagues he’s worth a shot, but in a standard 5x5 league, there’s too much risk here to pursue him aggressively. Sure, sometimes a gamble like this can pay off like Yoenis Cespedes did, but I would strongly advise against taking a huge gamble at a position that produces at the level 1B does. —Mauricio Rubio
Matt Adams, Cardinals
Adams finished August with a .270/.332/.456 line along with nine homers and 36 RBIs in about a half season’s worth of games (83 to be exact). The 162-game pace would’ve netted him 18 HR and 71 RBI with the .788 OPS, a perfectly acceptable effort for a lower-tier first baseman. However, he got a chance for full-time work when Allen Craig went down in September and he did not let the opportunity pass him by. In just 25 games, he nearly doubled his home run potential with an explosive .315/.344/.609 line including eight home runs and 15 RBI. The sprint to the finish line upped his 162-game pace to 26/77 with an 839 OPS.
Several early projections have him reaching that home run in 2014, but there are some concerns that leave me skeptical:
He had a 22 percent HR/FB rate in 2013.
This in itself isn’t a concern, as the top rung of power-hitting first basemen have high HR/FB outputs, but he doesn’t have an established track record for it like a Chris Davis or Ryan Howard.
The rest of his profile isn’t very conducive to a 22 percent HR/FB rate.
Adams only had a 36 percent fly-ball rate last year. Looking at first basemen with a 20 percent or higher HR/FB rate over the last three years combined, only two of the 10 had a fly-ball percentage that low: Miguel Cabrera (35.7 percent) and Michael Morse (32.4 percent). First off, it’s a small group of outliers to even join, but we know he’s no Cabrera, and while he could be Morse, that might not be such a positive outlook, since we have seen just the one big year from him.
Only one guy in the group had a ground-ball rate as high as the 44 percent of Adams.
It was Morse at 48 percent. Of course, that’s part of the reason Morse only hit 18 homers in 2012 despite a 23 percent HR/FB rate. Adams doesn’t hit enough flyballs or line drives to live in the 20+ percent HR/FB range. He looks like more of a 20-home run hitter than someone pushing into the mid-20s.
He struggled against lefties (654 OPS) which could eat into his playing time.
This is the weakest of the factors, because it was only 52 PA and the Cardinals may be willing to eat that in an effort to give him experience against southpaws and make him better. Plus, he had an .877 OPS against them during his last three seasons in the minors (244 PA).
This is more of a soft-avoid for Adams depending on price. I think his price will vary greatly league to league depending on how much stock is put in the bottom line which was inflated by that hot September. The depth of first base should keep him from being too overrated, but there is enough depth at third base, too, so you don’t need to overvalue Adams as a possible corner infielder, either. —Paul Sporer
Brandon Belt, Giants
Let me just start by imploring you to put down your pitchforks. Please, put down your pitchforks. Now that you are (hopefully) disarmed, let me discuss why I'm unlikely to own Brandon Belt on any of my teams this year. I like him from a skill perspective, I really do, but the hype has just gotten a little too rich for my tastes. We, at BP, have him ranked as the no. 10 first baseman, ahead of the likes of Allen Craig and Mark Trumbo. I just don't see it. He won't be a .300 hitter with that strikeout rate. He won't be a 25-home-run hitter in that ballpark. He's unlikely to steal double-digit bases. And those counting stats are not going to be there the way you'd want out of your starting first baseman. He's a good all-around player, but I'm not going to be the guy paying for a breakout based on a two-month sample to close out 2013. —Bret Sayre
Allen Craig, Cardinals
While Craig was baseball’s best hitter with runners in scoring position (.454/.500/.638), The Wrench missed most of September in a walking boot and left his owners high and dry at the most important time. Craig did top 90 RBI for the second consecutive season, but a drop in power (13 home runs in 2013, 22 in 2012) was the biggest letdown for his owners. Craig’s floor is relatively safe, but exactly what is the ceiling here? I’ll gladly take another 15 home runs and 90 RBI, but not if it means spending a top-10 pick at the position. His power numbers will need to rebound in order to make an early selection worthwhile. And judging from last year’s 28.1 percent fly-ball rate, it’s not a likely scenario. —Alex Kantecki
Justin Morneau, Rockies
After landing in perhaps the best possible place for his fantasy value, Morneau has seen a climb back up the ranks in many preseason first baseman valuations this offseason. While Coors Field will certainly stand to help the former MVP, I caution against projecting Morneau to rebound significantly. Morneau gets a lot of flack for being “injury prone,” but he’s accumulated more than 1,200 PA over the past two years and has averaged 18 homers, 77 RBI and an average around .263 per season. It’s possible that an uptick in BABIP and Coors could combine to boost his overall stat line, but Morneau is entering his age-33 season and the odds of him seeing drastic improvement are fairly slim. Add in that he has no business batting against lefties, and I think Morneau will struggle to finish as a top-20 fantasy 1B in 2014. He’s a fine grab as a bench option in mixed leagues, but don’t count on him as a starting CI. —Ben Carsley
Ryan Howard, Phillies
At the right price, Howard will be a good player to own in NL-only and very deep mixed leagues. However, there is a good deal of risk associated with a 34-year-old slugger whose profile as a heavier slugger doesn’t speak to a bounce back year or even a gradual decline. Howard hasn’t hit lefties with any kind of authority since 2010 and hasn’t played a full season since 2011. Howard believers are going to point to improved overall numbers in June and July before knee surgery ended his 2013 campaign, but the sample size is too small to give it much merit. While a strict platoon is unlikely given Howard’s albatross of a contract, it would not be surprising in the least if Darin Ruf and John Mayberry Jr. spelled Howard against southpaws now and again. Twenty-five home runs and a .280 batting average is probably a very generous upside for Howard, but there is way too much that can go wrong here to target anything close to those numbers for your fantasy lineup. —Mike Gianella
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
I do think he gets overrated just a tad, as people combine his batting average from 2012 (.285) with his home run total from 2013 (23) and then project growth from there. I’m not sure that’s a fair thing to do to a young player like Rizzo.” That’s me in the Cubs fantasy preview, and it’s the reason I’m “avoiding” Rizzo this year. I still like him as a player, both now and in the long term, but I think people are bumping him up their draft charts based on an upside that he isn’t quite ready to fulfill. I like Rizzo as a .260s, 22-25-home-run type. I acknowledge that there’s the upside to hit in the .280s and enough power to at least approach 30 home runs. I don’t think those two things happen in concert though, and without that tandem, I think the upside is getting overvalued. This isn’t to say Rizzo won’t be worthwhile asset in fantasy this year—he will—but I fear that where you have to draft him, robs him of the majority of his value. —Craig Goldstein
Mark Teixeira, Yankees
I talked in my "Target" piece this week about the value of consistency and its appeal for a player like Adrian Gonzalez. Prior to 2013 Mark Teixeira would've offered the same appeal. Teix overhauled his approach when he arrived at Yankee Stadium in 2009 to play more to the short porch. It led to more HR than his prior incarnation offset by chasing significantly more balls out of the zone and a lower BA. After a final peak season at Age 29 when he was runner-up to Joe Mauer’s MVP Teixeira put up BA's of .256, .248, and .251 over the next three seasons with ISO's of .225, .246, and .224. He remained pretty much the same hitter throughout the run, though his RBI & R totals did decline on account of a weakening lineup around him. But then 2013 happened. And losing a full season at age 34 to a wrist injury, with his skillset and body type, is a big deal. Yes he comes back to the same favorable park and a re-built lineup around him. However, with an already suspect BA profile and a significant question now about how much his power will rebound with a surgically rebuilt wrist I’d just as soon let somebody else in your league find out the answer. —Wilson Karaman
Second Basemen
by BP Fantasy Staff
For previous editions of this series, click below:
Players to Avoid: Catchers
Players to Avoid: First Base
The BP Fantasy Staff doesn’t want your dreams of fantasy success to become a hellish reality of mediocrity in the standings this season. So, maybe don’t draft these guys. You can do better. You deserve better.
Jose Altuve, Astros
The idea that steals are overvalued in mixed leagues is an overblown one, but in some cases the old canard applies, and it most certainly applies with Altuve. His extremely high ground-ball rate combined with his diminutive size is likely to always limit Altuve’s power potential and he is fairly underwhelming as a hitter. On a better major-league team, Altuve might be worth owning for his ability to score runs, but the Astros offense is a liability from a fantasy perspective and this isn’t something that is likely to change in 2014. In an -only league, by all means chase those steals, but in other formats, exercise caution. —Mike Gianella
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
Let’s make one thing clear: I may have targeted Neil Walker, but I’m not under the illusion that he’s better than Carpenter. That said, while the skills are better for Carpenter, I don’t think the gulf is as dramatic as it may seem. Both are contact oriented, non-speed types. Carpenter has a bit more pop and benefits from playing in a much stronger lineup, but his major value came from an absurd number of runs scored. Part of that was due to the Cardinals across the board incredible hitting with RISP, and while they’re still a great lineup, we can count on some regression there. Carpenter also excelled in RBI, another context-driven stat that is subject to variability. While there’s a strong argument that the context remains largely similar for Carpenter, thus the numbers should play out similarly, I always prefer to gamble on skills than situation. With the price you’re going to have to pay for Carpenter coming off his incredible season, you’re better off targeting a poor man’s version of him at a significantly reduced price. —Craig Goldstein
Howie Kendrick, Angles
If it feels like forever ago that you read your first article about Howie Kendrick's breakout potential, that's because it probably was. He's been playing in the majors since 2006. He's 30 years old now. I'm going to write that again, because it's important: he's thirty years old now. At a certain point players are who they are, and perhaps nobody in Major League Baseball exemplifies this quite like Kendrick. A former 10th-round pick from an unheralded Florida community college, Kendrick laid total and absolute waste to some of the most hitter-friendly environments in the minor leagues on his way to Anaheim. His career minor-league triple-slash line of .360/.403/.569 in over 1,750 plate appearances is the stuff of legend, and the helium it generated lasts arguably to this day. I don’t want to discount his contributions since those heady days, as Kendrick has been a fine and steady performer for many years now, and that has value. Over the past five seasons, he's hit between .279 and .297 every season and averaged exactly 11.8 homeruns and 11.8 steals a year. Fine numbers, but... well... kinda boring in fantasy baseball. He's never quite taken that leap we thought might be coming, and at this point in his career the odds are getting awfully long that he ever will. He finished 15th among second basemen last season and is currently going off the board 13th for 2014. The limited ceiling coupled with that draft position doesn’t leave much room to generate value, and that’s what you want to be doing once you hit the middle rounds of a draft. I’d just as soon look elsewhere for a better opportunity at the keystone. —Wilson Karaman
Daniel Murphy, Mets
I owned Murphy last season. Murphy was great last season. But that was last season. According to the most recent NFBC ADP, he’s the no. 10 second baseman, ahead of Aaron Hill, Chase Utley, and Neil Walker. I prefer all three to Murphy, whose value was enhanced by 23 stolen bases, up from 10 in 2012. If he repeats and steals 20 more, I’m going to look stupid for avoiding the Mets’ second baseman. But steals are the ultimate wild card; even if I give him 15, that’s a 35 percent decrease and he’ll need to make up for it by beating last year’s 92 runs and 78 RBI. With a .121 ISO and a 31 percent fly-ball rate since the start of 2012, double-digit home runs aren’t even a sure thing. I believe Murphy can reproduce a .286 BA, but I’d be much more excited to own him if he filled out my MI spot. I’m not about to pay for last season. —Alex Kantecki
Brandon Phillips, Reds
Every so often a player with track record and consistency in one category will post more of the same in a given year, right as the rest of his secondary skills fall off precipitously. That was the case with Phillips in 2013, who once again posted 18 HRs, a trend four years running, but saw a decline in slugging, wOBA, and ISO. Phillips isn't likely to swipe bags anymore, and at 33 it's tough projecting much of an improvement with the bat moving forward. Can Phillips have a dead-cat bounce and come back with a .450-plus SLG and an average over .290 with 18 bombs? Yeah, but those odds are long in my estimation, and I'm not one to take a gamble on Phillips when there's enough talent at the keystone that ranks above the Reds' 2B. —Mauricio Rubio
Rickie Weeks, Brewers
Tools are seductive. Middle infielders are seductive. The Brewers’ throwback uniforms are seductive. Weeks is a sexy player who teems with upside and the remains of lofty expectations only somewhat fulfilled. In 2010 and 2011, he was one of the best second baseman in the game. In 2012, he took a big step back but was still useful for fantasy purposes. And last year he fell off a cliff, once again succumbing to injuries, seeing a decline in power and speed and letting a poor BABIP drag his average down to just .209. Weeks has never been a particularly strong pure hitter, and now that his flashier tools are in decline it’s tough to see where the value will come from. He’s entering his age-31 season, meaning he’s not “done,” but his best days are likely behind him, and Scooter Gennett will begin the year as the Brewers’ starting 2B. I think it’s likely that Weeks ends up starting against lefties this year, but I don’t think he sees enough playing time to put up solid counting stats, and a transition off of second base could be coming, too. Overall, this is a situation fantasy owners are best left avoiding. —Ben Carsley
Kolten Wong, Cardinals
I'm a big supporter of Wong's long-term value for the Cardinals, but he's likely to remain a better real-life player than fantasy one until he either moves up in the lineup or is let loose on the base paths. The first of those two will be easier to overcome, as it's unclear who will start the season at the number two spot in the lineup. However, if it isn't Wong, he'll have a tough time accruing the types of counting stats he'll need to return value on his draft spot, and this ties in with the second point. The Cardinals finished 2013 second-to-last in stolen bases and even though some of that comes from personnel, Mike Matheny appears to be a conservative manager when it comes to the green light. In the right situation, Wong could run enough to steal 25 bags, but expecting more than about 15 isn't something I'm willing to do until I see it with my own eyes. On top of all this, Wong's backup is just someone who has been worth at least 2.5 bWAR in each of the last two years. So, you know, no pressure, kid. —Bret Sayre
Shortstops
by BP Fantasy Staff
Shortstop isn't as shallow as you think for fantasy purposes. So don't mess up by taking a shortstop who isn't good. This is the analysis you came here for.
Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
Cabrera is a confusing player to forecast from an analytics point of view. He's increased his line-drive percentage over the past few seasons, yet his BABIP has been worse. He's hitting more fly balls, yet fewer of them are going for home runs and his ISO has seen a sharp drop from his glory days of 2011. He's stealing fewer bases, striking out a bit mor,e and walking a bit less, and his batting average has fallen in each of the past five seasons.
That being said, Cabrera is entering his age-28 season and as my colleague Mike Gianella pointed out in the counterpart to this piece, Cabrera will still have some value in 2014. I think his days of hitting anywhere near .300 or challenging for 20 homers are well in the past, though, and what we're left with is a MI-type in standard leagues with little upside and declining speed. Unfortunately, his peak season probably came early. —Ben Carsley
Starlin Castro, Cubs
There are a lot of questions revolving around whether or not Castro will rebound, but forget about all of that for a moment. The two biggest concerns surrounding Castro involve whether or not he’ll run again and whether or not that Cubs lineup will produce enough for him to see much of a jump in runs/RBI at all. If Castro doesn’t run and is only good for 10-12 steals in 2014, you’re drafting a shortstop who is probably going to hit 12-14 home runs with a .280-.290 average even if he does bounce back. That’s solid—and definitely would be an improvement from his moribund 2013—but it pushes him well out of the realm of elite performers at the position. —Mike Gianella
Alcides Escobar, Royals
Escobar has his selling points—namely speed—as he went 22-for-22 in stolen bases last year. Still, that was a marked drop from his 35 swipes the year before, and with Norichika Aoki in town, it’s unlikely he’ll benefit from batting atop the Royals’ potent lineup, something he did in 49 percent of his plate appearances last season. While his batting average should receive a bump thanks to some better BABIP luck, it won’t be enough to offset the minimal power he offers, combined with the lower counting stats he’ll get at the bottom of the lineup. Given that he was already under 60 runs and RBI, that’s a hit he can’t really afford to take. Stolen bases are worth plenty, and they’re worth more as the run game continues to decline, but given where you’re going to take Escobar, there are better options available. —Craig Goldstein
Derek Jeter, Yankees
This is perhaps shooting fish in the barrel, but if for any reason you have any inclination to try to trust the name that accompanies the current iteration of Derek Jeter, don’t. I would hazard a guess that over the next few weeks, you’ll read story after story detailing the Captain’s batting practice sessions and how he’s hitting the ball with more authority. The myth surrounding Jeter will obfuscate the reality that is Jeter. He’ll be 40 in June, he’s coming back off a severe injury, and he plays a highly demanding position. It’s likely that he already had his HoFer late-career boon with a surprising 2012, and it’s irresponsible to expect him to do it again at an advanced age. Sure, heroes get remembered and legends never die, but not even the Babe could outrun the cruel claws of age. —Mauricio Rubio
Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
Ramirez was a nice surprise for a White Sox team that finished with a fourth-worst .299 wOBA. In terms of fantasy, it was the shortstop’s best season since 2010, when he smacked 18 home runs and swiped 13 bags. He’s no longer someone you can trust with the long ball, however, with declining ISOs over the previous four seasons, from .146 in 2010 to .096 in 2013. His home run total fell to just six a year ago, and—with only 68 runs and 48 RBI—Ramirez’s value was tied almost entirely to a career-best 30 steals. I’m very skeptical he can reach that level again, as the shortstop stole 27 bases the previous two seasons combined. Ramirez enters 2014 at age 32, and—thanks to the work of FanGraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman—we know steals at that age often see a steep decline. The batting average will be fine, but if he’s not giving you 20 or more steals, Ramirez is a middling middle-infield option on a below-average offense. —Alex Kantecki
Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
This is more of a "keep your expectations in a whole bunch of check" advisory than an out-and-out "avoid." It's awful tempting to look at Rollins' 2013 and dismiss it almost entirely given the track record and severity of just how bad he was last year - especially since he hit 23 homers and stole 30 bases as recently as 2012. But counting on a rebound to previous production levels, or really anything close to them, is a pretty significant risk, and owners should not be paying for Rollins as an upside play this year.
His contact rate is on the wrong side of a fairly prototypical career bell curve, bottoming out at 86.8 percent last year—his worst effort since 2003. His swinging strike rate is also in the midst of a four-year increase, indicating some very probable age-related erosion to his bat speed. For a player who’s historically a tenuous AVG play it’s a troubling combination. And while last year's 3.3 percent HR:FB rate was likely a significant outlier to his career 7.7 percent mark, he did lose almost 20 feet per fly ball, and that’s a huge number. Ten to 12 homers is probably an appropriate ceiling to expect.
Finally, he ran less often last year, with a stolen base attempt in only 4.2 percent of his plate appearances—well below his 5.8 percent career mark and the continuation of a three-year decline. His success rate, while remaining strong enough, was nonetheless down as well, and at age 35, it’s more likely those numbers continue down than rebound up. A guy with a ceiling of .245/11/20 and mediocre R/RBI production is not terrible, and certainly playable in most standard 14-16-team leagues. But it also offers little room for return on investment from a player currently going 15th overall among shortstops. Buyers should be aware of what they’re paying for if they invest in Rollins this year. —Wilson Karaman
Jean Segura, Brewers
This feels a bit vanilla, and yet I am still seeing him valued as the third or fourth shortstop in a lot of spots. He got worse every month of the season. Of cours, when you start as hot as he did in April and May, it makes sense to regress, but he collapsed. He hit 67 percent of his home runs and drove in 43 percent of his runs in those first two months. He hit one home run in the final three months, including an impossibly bad August and September with zero homers and just seven RBI.
The only thing that salvaged his value in the summer was his consistent speed. A repeat of 12 homers would be a massive surprise; I honestly think half of that total would be a win. I’m seeing more of a .280-72-6-52-38 season from him, and that is definitely good, especially at shortstop, but not worth the current price. I’ve still got him in the top 10, but it’s toward the back end of the list. —Paul Sporer
Third Baseman
by BP Fantasy Staff
I'm out of hot corner puns, so… just maybe don't draft these players.
Nick Castellanos, Tigers
If there's been a running theme in my avoid picks for this series it's that I'm not a big advocate of paying retail for rookie hitters, even in the face of what we've seen recently with the Trouts, Harpers, and Machados of the world. Machados? Machadoes? Let's call the whole thing off. Even in a high-end realistic scenario in which Castellanos lives up to his potential right away and stays in the lineup all season, we shouldn't be expecting more than around a .275 average and 15 homers—which would be a great rookie campaign for him. But the potential pitfalls are numerous. The easy pitfall is that he struggles at the plate, but possibly the more important one is that he struggles in the field. Castellanos was no sure bet to stay at third base long-term before the Prince Fielder signing shifted Miguel Cabrera to his "natural" position. Now that he's back, he's going to have to prove he doesn't deserve a second tour of duty in left field, where he'd have more competition for full-time at bats. —Bret Sayre
Todd Frazier - Cincinnati Reds
Consistent power is Frazier’s calling card, as he’s posted back to back 19-home-run seasons. His value varied wildly in those years though, as he hit .273 in 2012 and .234 in 2013. That can be blamed on his batting average on balls in play a bit, as he went from .316 to .269, but that doesn’t mean it can be blamed solely on bad luck. In 2012, Frazier had a fly-ball rate just south of 45 percent so a league average (or slightly above) BABIP would seem to indicate good fortune. While he did drop his fly-ball clip to under 40 percent for 2013, he also lost four percentage points off his line-drive rate, which means he wasn’t making the hard contact he was previously. The difference in production meant that Frazier went from being 21 percent above league average in 2012 to precisely league average in 2013. This isn’t to say Frazier can’t rebound, but with 20 home runs appearing to be an upper limit, the upside isn’t there to pop him over some other options, especially with his RBI opportunities taking a hit now that Shin-Soo Choo is in Texas. —Craig Goldstein
Chase Headley, Padres
Headley does a lot of things well. He has seasons in which he hits over .280. He has seasons in which he hits 30-plus homers. He has seasons in which he steals 15-plus bases. He's a nice, well-rounded player. The problem with evaluating Headley is that one tends to hope he’ll eventually put all of those numbers together in a single, MVP-caliber campaign—but that’s quite unlikely to be the case. Headley is entering his age-30 season, still plays in the worst offensive ballpark in the majors, bats in the middle of a bad lineup, and saw his average fall off a cliff last season despite a favorable BABIP. His days of swiping double-digit bags could very well be over, and it should be apparent that his 31-homer season is the outlier—not his multiple 10-13-homer campaigns. Again, this is a well-rounded player who should see a rebound in average from 2014, but he's not the breakout candidate many predict, even if he does end up being dealt to the Yankees in June. He's a good, unspectacular option for 2014, so "avoid" is harsh, but I certainly wouldn't reach for him or project him to break out. —Ben Carsley
Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
I’m 100 percent guilty of over-hyping Lawrie based on 43 games in 2011. That was my first practical lesson is small sample sizes on the fantasy beat, so, naturally, I now have a hard time trusting most tiny samples, especially when they are presented to me in toothpick form at a local grocery. In two seasons since his rookie year, Lawrie has collected 22 home runs and 22 stolen bases. That’s the kind of production I expected him to provide in one season, not two. Lawrie is still capable of giving us a 15/15 season, but he needs to stay on the field first. He’s been on the DL three times since his big-league debut, appearing in 107 games in 2013 after playing in 125 the year before. Maybe my sights were set too high following his call-up to the show, but Lawrie isn’t someone I can trust to man the hot corner, even if he comes at a discount. If he does stay healthy, I'll no longer feel like I'm missing out. —Alex Kantecki
Manny Machado, Orioles
I’m actually a huge Machado fan, but I worry that the 2B-into-HR idea is being overplayed while the serious knee surgery is being underplayed. I think the latter is going to lop off some of the MLB-best 667 at-bats that he had last year, and if the former doesn’t come (and there’s no guarantee it will), then the numbers just aren’t there for superstardom in 2014. The knee is also a concern for stolen bases, as if the 6-for-13 success (and I hesitate to use that word) rate weren’t worrisome enough. I really want to be wrong here and without the knee issue, I’d be all-in on Machado. As it stands, I’m looking at 2015 as the potential breakout season. —Paul Sporer
Mike Moustakas, Royals
There isn’t enough power here to justify carrying such a poor batting average, particularly in mixed leagues. While Moustakas’ infield-fly-ball rates have improved since his rookie campaign in 2011, his 16.6 perecnt rate is still way too high for a hitter who is going to need to hit home runs to justify a spot on your fantasy roster. The presence of Danny Valencia isn’t going to help either. Moustakas might not find himself in a strict platoon, but Valencia’s strong bat against lefties is going to keep him in the line-up against southpaws more often than not. There’s a place for Moustakas in deeper mixed and -only leagues, but paying for what was once his ceiling isn’t a shrewd idea. —Mike Gianella
Pablo Sandoval, Giants
Heading into his age-27 season and having reportedly lost 40 pounds this offseason, Sandoval has all the makings of a popular spring training helium guy and bounce-back candidate. But he’ll be among the risker options around, and unless he falls significantly in your draft, it’s tough to make a case that he’ll be worth the gamble.
Sandoval's been two very different players in his five full-ish seasons in the majors. In 2009 and 2011, he was a guy who posted HR/FB rates that spiked into the mid-teens, while his other three seasons that number’s been planted firmly in the single digits. Given hamate surgeries on each wrist since that last double-digit showing, a home park that is the worst in the Majors for left-handed power (and fifth worst for right-handed power), and the earlier physical peak heavy players tend to experience, it’s much more likely than not that his days as a 20-home-run hitter are done. The other key issue as alluded to above is health. He’s hit the DL in each of the past three seasons with a wide array of upper and lower body injuries, and there’s just a much greater built-in risk of more injuries to come for him given body type and history. Sandoval’s currently going 13th among third basemen at the end of the 12th round. But if I miss out on a top-tier third baseman and find myself looking for one at that point in a draft, I’ll be much more inclined to make an upside play with at least a chance of returning positive value on my investment. With Sandoval you’re just hoping he stays healthy long enough for you to break even, and that’s a poor investment of draft-day resources. —Wilson Karaman
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
This is a bit of a soft avoid, as it has been termed around these parts. Zimmerman remains a valuable play at third when he’s healthy. There are some red flags, though. The pop-up rate has increased the past two years, and so has the strikeout clip. Neither of those numbers is my primary cause for concern, however. Zimmerman has a long list of injuries on his page and they are the types of injuries that tend to stay with a player as his career goes along. Yes, Zimmerman has played 145-plus games in each of the past two seasons but given the other options at third, I’m more than willing to take a pass on Zimmerman and let another owner find out how many games he’ll play this year. —Mauricio Rubio
Outfielders
by BP Fantasy Staff
There are nearly 90 starting outfielders in baseball, plus countless (not literally) platoon players, reserves, and prospects who all man the position. You have a lot of players to choose from. Don't choose one of the following.
Michael Bourn, Indians
Considering Michael Bourn’s previous track record it’d be silly to think he’s never going to steal 30 bases again, and PECOTA has him threatening 40 in 2014. What concerns me with Bourn is the slide in overall numbers. In the two years prior to landing in Cleveland, Bourn posted True Averages in the .260-plus range. Last year, his TAv fell to .247 as he saw a slide all across his slash line. Bourn is sliding into “two-category player” status, and you can get guys like Will Venable and Ben Revere later than Bourn. —Mauricio Rubio
Curtis Granderson, Mets
Despite last year’s dreadful slash line of .229/.317/.407, plus seven home runs and 15 RBI in 61 games, the Mets inked Granderson to a four-year, $60 million contract in an effort to shore up an offense with little talent outside of David Wright and Daniel Murphy. The over-commitment reminds me of the one the Braves dished out to B.J. Upton last offseason, and we all know how that ended up in year no. 1. I don’t doubt that Granderson has something left, but Citi Field isn’t kind to left-handed power, which is his greatest strength. The last two seasons, Granderson has hit worse than .235; can you really take that big of a hit in batting average if you’re not guaranteed 30 home runs? Unless he really falls in drafts, I don’t see the opportunity to return value. —Alex Kantekcki
Starling Marte, Pirates
Marte put together a breakthrough 2013 campaign in which he hit .280 and stole 41 bases despite a DL stint for an injured hand. And fantasy managers appear to have bought into the season as a sign of things to come, as Marte's currently going off the board 24th among outfielders and in the top 60 overall. But there are some bright red flags waving majestically in the breeze, and Marte's a tenuous bet to build upon or even replicate his 2013 numbers. His approach at the plate could generously be described as not good. He walked in just 4.4 percent of his plate appearances last season after a five percent career minor-league rate, and he saw his OBP propped up by an unsustainable 21 HBP.
He also managed that .280 average on the back of a .366 BABIP and despite a 24.4 percent whiff rate that ballooned to almost 30 percent in the second half of the season. Even if we grant that his skillset is more likely to be able to support an above-average BABIP, a repeat of that .366 mark is incredibly unlikely. And all of the major underlying metrics that generally drive a poor strikeout rate (poor contact rate, high percentage of swinging strikes, high percentage of balls chased out of the zone) were all present in spades in his plate-discipline profile. All of this is to say that major-league pitchers are very unlikely to work him the same way next year, and we saw some of that adjustment take shape over the course of last season. Unless he shows a sudden ability to completely transform his approach at the plate, he's a prime candidate for a possibly significant AVG and OBP regression. That means less of all the counting stats in addition to the AVG fall, and a negative return on investment for owners forking over a fifth-round pick for his services. —Wilson Karaman
Yasiel Puig, Dodgers
As often is the case for players I write about in this space, this isn’t a truly a recommendation to avoid Puig completely, but rather a caution to tread carefully. Puig is a superstar in the making, but there is often an exuberance that comes with sophomores—particularly those entering their first full season—that isn’t warranted. Puig has consistently been a top-25 pick in drafts and a $30-plus player in the early NL-only auctions I have participated in so far. Puig is going to have to not only duplicate last year’s performance, but add to it a great deal to reach those targets. As we have seen even in the cases of uber-elite prospects like Bryce Harper, the road isn’t always linear. Puig is fine for me in the fourth round or in the mid-$20s, but you’re not going to get him there, and you shouldn’t chase him past that point. —Mike Gianella
Mark Trumbo, Diamondbacks
I had a time choosing an outfielder to avoid, but settled on Trumbo. The 30-95 of the last three years is nice, but the batting average drag and uninspired run totals (which have something to do with his team, but plenty to do with a .300 OBP in that span, including two sub-.300 seasons) have led to just one $20 season among the trio. His career highs in R, HR, and RBI last year still only landed him 84th on the ESPN Player Rater, and yet he’s being taken as the 70th player off the board thanks to a move into a friendlier home ballpark. He struggles against righties (.685 OPS in 2013; .748 career) and only has one exemplary year against lefties (last year’s .923 OPS). What if he doesn’t come storming out of the gates one of these seasons (first-half OPS: 841; second-half: 679)? Tread carefully here. —Paul Sporer
Jayson Werth, Nationals
The argument here isn’t against Werth as a player—because he’s a quality one. It’s that he’s not likely to produce the season he did in 2013, and is being drafted as a top-30 outfielder (per fantasypros.com) at the current time. Even with regression, he’s likely to produce that kind of value if he can play a full season, raising the question—why avoid him? Well, he’s no sure bet to play a full slate of games, entering his age-35 season. While he had a healthy run in Philadelphia, he’s missed 30-plus games in two of his three seasons with the Nationals, and an injury history longer than his beard and not nearly as inspiring. Again, his ability to contribute when healthy isn’t at stake here—even if he is more likely to be in line with his career .274/.367/.471 slash line than the .318/.391/.532 he produced in 2013—but his ability to do it over a full season is. He’s not getting any younger, and while he could produce surplus value if he manages to stay upright, that’s a risk I’m happy to let someone else take. —Craig Goldstein
Chris Young, Mets
In our internal discussions for this series, Paul Sporer advised me against writing up Chris Young. "Who wants Chris Young anymore?" was the general gist of Paul's sentiment. But then we began talking about the man-crush we've both held for Young at various points in our fantasy careers, and it convinced me that he's still worth addressing here. Young averaged a .240/.319/.438 line from 2007-2011, with counting stats of 23 homers, 20 steals, 71 RBI, and 81 runs per season. It's that four-category fantasy upside that so many find intoxicating, especially as Young now has little competition for playing time in New York.
Unfortunately, Young's past two seasons have seen his hit tool further regress, and while the power/speed is still there and still tempting, his average has shifted from "tolerable" to "burdensome." Contextual factors, such as Young's new ballpark and his weak supporting cast, figure to further depress his counting stats, which is really all you can rely on him for at this point. Add in that Young has been especially poor against RHP, and there's a chance that he could become something of a short-side platoon player, too. I want to believe again, but there's too much conspiring against Young to make him as attractive a sleeper as many believe for 2014. —Ben Carsley
"There is no limit to what can be accomplished when nobody cares who gets the credit."
