Post by Cardinals GM (Wood) on Mar 4, 2015 7:53:07 GMT -6
March 3, 2015 by Matt Eddy
The major league strikeout rate has climbed steadily each season since 2005, reaching a high-water mark of 20.4 percent of all plate appearances in 2014. What you might not realize is that the strikeout rate also is higher today at each classification of the full-season minors than it was a decade ago, though those trendlines are not nearly so linear.
SO-100-PA-Since-2005
Whereas the major league strikeout rate sat at 16.5 percent in 2005 and shot straight up from there, the various full-season minor league rates ranged from roughly 18-19 percent in 2005 to roughly 19-20 percent today. Low Class A batters consistently strike out the most often, though their big league counterparts have matched or exceeded them in both 2012 and 2014 as the march for higher ground continues unabated.
On-Base Percentage
Today Versus 10 Years Ago
Level 2005 2014 Difference
Majors .330 .314 -16 points
Triple-A .344 .338 -6 points
Double-A .333 .326 -7 points
High-A .342 .331 -11 points
Low-A .336 .326 -10 points
The league-wide on-base percentage also is lower today at each step of the full-season ladder, most dramatically in the majors and at both Class A levels.
Keep in mind that the loss of 16 OBP points in the majors in a decade translates to 16 additional outs per 100 PAs, and with all those extra outs being made, many stemming from additional strikeouts, the rate of extra bases per 100 PAs fell to 10-year lows across the board in 2014.
XB-100-PA-Since-2005
Throughout the game’s most-recent expansion era, beginning with the origin of Marlins and Rockies in 1993, teams have increasingly become more tolerant of batter strikeouts if it comes packaged with corresponding extra-base output. However, the major league game now has seen large drops in power output for three straight seasons—even when batters conclude an at-bat by making contact and, therefore, not striking out.
To that point, extra bases on contact* in the major leagues registered at 19.2 per 100 “contact outcomes” in 2012, then fell to 18.2 in 2013, then fell to 17.3 in 2014. In others words, that’s about two fewer extra bases every 100 “contact outcomes” for the average major league batter in 2014 compared with 2012. If a batter makes contact in 400 trips to the plate during a season, then he now collects eight fewer extra bases—which is equivalent to two home runs and two doubles—than he did as recently as 2012.
Extra Bases Per 100
“Contact Outcomes”
Level 2012 2013 2014
Majors 19.2 18.2 17.3
Triple-A 17.9 17.4 18.1
Double-A 16.4 16.5 16.1
High-A 17.1 16.9 16.6
Low-A 16.0 15.2 15.3
Granted, these deleterious on-contact effects are not as evident in the minors—at least not yet. The Triple-A and Double-A are largely unchanged from 2012, while the Class A levels are down only slightly from three years ago.
So while it used to be true that the game’s rising strikeout rate did not negatively affect power on contact, recent tends in that department suggest that is no longer the case.
In the rest of this piece, we will explore some of the ways these strikeout and extra-base trends might affect team-building philosophies and player development.
Taking Cues
If imitation truly is the sincerest form of flattery, then we may see more clubs begin to embrace hitters with higher contact rates, even if it comes at the expense of some power.
“I think because of the Giants-Royals matchup in the World Series last year that there will be something of a premium based on contact with players,” one front office executive said, “and I think in a short series where, theoretically, you are facing elite arms, the ability to put the ball in play gives you a better opportunity to score runs.”
The Royals had the lowest batter strikeout rate (16.2 percent) in the majors in 2014, and the Giants ranked 13th-lowest at 19.3 percent. Pitchers are excluded from these strikeout rates to level the playing field between leagues.
Generally speaking, teams that make more contact have advanced farther in the playoffs during the past five seasons, a period during which run-scoring has fallen sharply. Major league teams scored 4.61 runs per game as recently as 2009, while today they score 4.07.
The two National League franchises that have struck out the least frequently in the past five seasons are the Cardinals (17.5 percent) and Giants (18.4). Those two teams have won all five NL pennants in that time.
Their American League counterparts would be the Rangers (16.2 percent) and Tigers (18.0), who have the second- and third-lowest strikeout rates in the league since 2010. Those two clubs have won three pennants, while the No. 1 Royals (16.2 percent) won the 2014 AL flag.
All told, the Cardinals, Giants, Tigers and Rangers have accounted for eight of the 10 team World Series appearances since 2010. What’s more, Detroit narrowly missed advancing to 2013 World Series, falling to the Red Sox in six games in the AL Championship Series.
Here’s where all LCS participants of the 2010s have ranked in their respective leagues in terms of lowest batter strikeout rate.
Year NLCS W (SO%) NLCS L (SO%)
ALCS W (SO%)
ALCS L (SO%)
2010 Giants (5) Phillies (2) Rangers (4) Yankees (8)
2011 Cardinals (1) Brewers (4) Rangers (1) Tigers (10)
2012 Giants (1) Cardinals (3) Tigers (5) Yankees (7)
2013 Cardinals (2) Dodgers (4) Red Sox (11) Tigers (1)
2014 Giants (6) Cardinals (1) Royals (1) Orioles (11)
The 2013 Red Sox stand out as the outlier in this group. Every other LCS winner’s offense ranked comfortably in the first division in terms of making contact.
Looking To The Future
Front offices around the majors are only too familiar with the rising tide of strikeouts, but the issue hasn’t been studied thoroughly in the minor leagues.
We would naturally expect to see attrition to a batter’s contact rate as he advances to higher levels. Among other things, the pitchers throw better pitches with sharper control and the umpires are more efficient (or more closely-monitored) at the highest levels.
People in player-development departments across the game tend not to think of batter strikeout rates in absolute terms. Crossing a particular threshold won’t result in banishment or won’t typically put a player on a do-not-acquire list.
“We consider context heavily when it comes to evaluating batter strikeout rates,” one front-office executive said. “We adjust for league, for park, for age, for power production. We have no magic cutoff we have established, though we acknowledge that a 24-year-old with a 35-percent strikeout rate at Double-A, realistically, has little room for improvement.”
Particularly interesting is the extreme strikeout rates that have persisted at the low Class A level. Even when the big league strikeout rate was a comparatively tame 15.9 percent in 1993, the low Class A leagues checked in at 19.2 percent, which is more or less in line with today’s standard of 20.4 percent.
In other words, wait to see how a strikeout-prone young slugger adjusts to higher levels before writing him off in low Class A. For example, Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton struck out 28 percent of the time at Greensboro in 2008, one year out of the draft. He improved dramatically in two followup seasons and now stands as one of the game’s premier sluggers—and its highest-paid player.
The two most similar hitters in this year’s Top 100 Prospects class probably are a pair of hard-hitting third basemen. The Rangers’ Joey Gallo whiffed 37 percent of the time at Hickory in 2013, and the Twins’ Miguel Sano struck out 26 percent of the time at Beloit in 2012. Here’s how that trio of young sluggers fared in terms of strikeout rate at both their Class A stops, and how their rates compared with the league average (an index score of 100 is average).
Year-Over-Year Change To Strikeout Rate
Player Low-A
Index High-A
Index
Stanton, 2008-09 28.3% 71 21.4% 89
Sano, 2012-13 26.0% 75 25.1% 74
Gallo, 2013-14 37.0% 58 26.0% 76
We see that Stanton and Gallo improved their strikeout-rate index dramatically at high Class A, while Sano more or less maintained his rate, though all three remain comfortably below the league average in that regard (but well above-average in terms of power output).
The important thing to keep in mind when evaluating statistics for players like Stanton, Gallo and Sano is that the typical strikeout rate at low Class A hovers near 20 percent. Not only that, but hitters there have ample room to improve and can take huge strides forward in their development once they put a full season under the belts.
“A lot of the high strikeout rate at low-A we attribute to younger hitters and bigger strike zones. Everything is contextual,” the front office executive said. “In terms of how we view our prospects internally, we believe year-over-year improvement (to strikeout rate) is the best indicator, though it’s not an easy area to make a big improvement.
“While it’s not a fixed skill, it’s also difficult to improve a batter’s strike-zone discipline or contact rate. And as to how much dramatic improvement is expected at higher levels, well, it’s probably not huge.”
* Extra bases on contact is measured as (2B + 3B*2 + HR*3) divided by (AB – SO + SF)
Source of historical minor league data: Baseball-Reference.com
listed from baseballamerica.com
The major league strikeout rate has climbed steadily each season since 2005, reaching a high-water mark of 20.4 percent of all plate appearances in 2014. What you might not realize is that the strikeout rate also is higher today at each classification of the full-season minors than it was a decade ago, though those trendlines are not nearly so linear.
SO-100-PA-Since-2005
Whereas the major league strikeout rate sat at 16.5 percent in 2005 and shot straight up from there, the various full-season minor league rates ranged from roughly 18-19 percent in 2005 to roughly 19-20 percent today. Low Class A batters consistently strike out the most often, though their big league counterparts have matched or exceeded them in both 2012 and 2014 as the march for higher ground continues unabated.
On-Base Percentage
Today Versus 10 Years Ago
Level 2005 2014 Difference
Majors .330 .314 -16 points
Triple-A .344 .338 -6 points
Double-A .333 .326 -7 points
High-A .342 .331 -11 points
Low-A .336 .326 -10 points
The league-wide on-base percentage also is lower today at each step of the full-season ladder, most dramatically in the majors and at both Class A levels.
Keep in mind that the loss of 16 OBP points in the majors in a decade translates to 16 additional outs per 100 PAs, and with all those extra outs being made, many stemming from additional strikeouts, the rate of extra bases per 100 PAs fell to 10-year lows across the board in 2014.
XB-100-PA-Since-2005
Throughout the game’s most-recent expansion era, beginning with the origin of Marlins and Rockies in 1993, teams have increasingly become more tolerant of batter strikeouts if it comes packaged with corresponding extra-base output. However, the major league game now has seen large drops in power output for three straight seasons—even when batters conclude an at-bat by making contact and, therefore, not striking out.
To that point, extra bases on contact* in the major leagues registered at 19.2 per 100 “contact outcomes” in 2012, then fell to 18.2 in 2013, then fell to 17.3 in 2014. In others words, that’s about two fewer extra bases every 100 “contact outcomes” for the average major league batter in 2014 compared with 2012. If a batter makes contact in 400 trips to the plate during a season, then he now collects eight fewer extra bases—which is equivalent to two home runs and two doubles—than he did as recently as 2012.
Extra Bases Per 100
“Contact Outcomes”
Level 2012 2013 2014
Majors 19.2 18.2 17.3
Triple-A 17.9 17.4 18.1
Double-A 16.4 16.5 16.1
High-A 17.1 16.9 16.6
Low-A 16.0 15.2 15.3
Granted, these deleterious on-contact effects are not as evident in the minors—at least not yet. The Triple-A and Double-A are largely unchanged from 2012, while the Class A levels are down only slightly from three years ago.
So while it used to be true that the game’s rising strikeout rate did not negatively affect power on contact, recent tends in that department suggest that is no longer the case.
In the rest of this piece, we will explore some of the ways these strikeout and extra-base trends might affect team-building philosophies and player development.
Taking Cues
If imitation truly is the sincerest form of flattery, then we may see more clubs begin to embrace hitters with higher contact rates, even if it comes at the expense of some power.
“I think because of the Giants-Royals matchup in the World Series last year that there will be something of a premium based on contact with players,” one front office executive said, “and I think in a short series where, theoretically, you are facing elite arms, the ability to put the ball in play gives you a better opportunity to score runs.”
The Royals had the lowest batter strikeout rate (16.2 percent) in the majors in 2014, and the Giants ranked 13th-lowest at 19.3 percent. Pitchers are excluded from these strikeout rates to level the playing field between leagues.
Generally speaking, teams that make more contact have advanced farther in the playoffs during the past five seasons, a period during which run-scoring has fallen sharply. Major league teams scored 4.61 runs per game as recently as 2009, while today they score 4.07.
The two National League franchises that have struck out the least frequently in the past five seasons are the Cardinals (17.5 percent) and Giants (18.4). Those two teams have won all five NL pennants in that time.
Their American League counterparts would be the Rangers (16.2 percent) and Tigers (18.0), who have the second- and third-lowest strikeout rates in the league since 2010. Those two clubs have won three pennants, while the No. 1 Royals (16.2 percent) won the 2014 AL flag.
All told, the Cardinals, Giants, Tigers and Rangers have accounted for eight of the 10 team World Series appearances since 2010. What’s more, Detroit narrowly missed advancing to 2013 World Series, falling to the Red Sox in six games in the AL Championship Series.
Here’s where all LCS participants of the 2010s have ranked in their respective leagues in terms of lowest batter strikeout rate.
Year NLCS W (SO%) NLCS L (SO%)
ALCS W (SO%)
ALCS L (SO%)
2010 Giants (5) Phillies (2) Rangers (4) Yankees (8)
2011 Cardinals (1) Brewers (4) Rangers (1) Tigers (10)
2012 Giants (1) Cardinals (3) Tigers (5) Yankees (7)
2013 Cardinals (2) Dodgers (4) Red Sox (11) Tigers (1)
2014 Giants (6) Cardinals (1) Royals (1) Orioles (11)
The 2013 Red Sox stand out as the outlier in this group. Every other LCS winner’s offense ranked comfortably in the first division in terms of making contact.
Looking To The Future
Front offices around the majors are only too familiar with the rising tide of strikeouts, but the issue hasn’t been studied thoroughly in the minor leagues.
We would naturally expect to see attrition to a batter’s contact rate as he advances to higher levels. Among other things, the pitchers throw better pitches with sharper control and the umpires are more efficient (or more closely-monitored) at the highest levels.
People in player-development departments across the game tend not to think of batter strikeout rates in absolute terms. Crossing a particular threshold won’t result in banishment or won’t typically put a player on a do-not-acquire list.
“We consider context heavily when it comes to evaluating batter strikeout rates,” one front-office executive said. “We adjust for league, for park, for age, for power production. We have no magic cutoff we have established, though we acknowledge that a 24-year-old with a 35-percent strikeout rate at Double-A, realistically, has little room for improvement.”
Particularly interesting is the extreme strikeout rates that have persisted at the low Class A level. Even when the big league strikeout rate was a comparatively tame 15.9 percent in 1993, the low Class A leagues checked in at 19.2 percent, which is more or less in line with today’s standard of 20.4 percent.
In other words, wait to see how a strikeout-prone young slugger adjusts to higher levels before writing him off in low Class A. For example, Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton struck out 28 percent of the time at Greensboro in 2008, one year out of the draft. He improved dramatically in two followup seasons and now stands as one of the game’s premier sluggers—and its highest-paid player.
The two most similar hitters in this year’s Top 100 Prospects class probably are a pair of hard-hitting third basemen. The Rangers’ Joey Gallo whiffed 37 percent of the time at Hickory in 2013, and the Twins’ Miguel Sano struck out 26 percent of the time at Beloit in 2012. Here’s how that trio of young sluggers fared in terms of strikeout rate at both their Class A stops, and how their rates compared with the league average (an index score of 100 is average).
Year-Over-Year Change To Strikeout Rate
Player Low-A
Index High-A
Index
Stanton, 2008-09 28.3% 71 21.4% 89
Sano, 2012-13 26.0% 75 25.1% 74
Gallo, 2013-14 37.0% 58 26.0% 76
We see that Stanton and Gallo improved their strikeout-rate index dramatically at high Class A, while Sano more or less maintained his rate, though all three remain comfortably below the league average in that regard (but well above-average in terms of power output).
The important thing to keep in mind when evaluating statistics for players like Stanton, Gallo and Sano is that the typical strikeout rate at low Class A hovers near 20 percent. Not only that, but hitters there have ample room to improve and can take huge strides forward in their development once they put a full season under the belts.
“A lot of the high strikeout rate at low-A we attribute to younger hitters and bigger strike zones. Everything is contextual,” the front office executive said. “In terms of how we view our prospects internally, we believe year-over-year improvement (to strikeout rate) is the best indicator, though it’s not an easy area to make a big improvement.
“While it’s not a fixed skill, it’s also difficult to improve a batter’s strike-zone discipline or contact rate. And as to how much dramatic improvement is expected at higher levels, well, it’s probably not huge.”
* Extra bases on contact is measured as (2B + 3B*2 + HR*3) divided by (AB – SO + SF)
Source of historical minor league data: Baseball-Reference.com
listed from baseballamerica.com
